National Skilled Human Resource Projection in Health and Engineering Profession

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Executive Summary

Availability of skilled human resource is one of the main prerequisites for the economic development of any country. Comparative study of the status of various countries reveals that higher the level of education and skill of the citizen, higher the level of development of the country and vice versa. This fact is even more justifiable in the case of technical human resources. Furthermore, present situation of Nepal has epitomized this facts since lack of skilled human resource is felt as a major bottleneck both to enhance the industrial development as well as modernize the agriculture sector. On the one hand, economic development of Nepal is being adversely affected by the lack of skilled human resources in various sectors and regions. On the other hand, the mismatch between demand and supply of HR not only misuse the scare resources of the country but also creates serious repercussion due to educational unemployment. This study therefore is an attempt to quantify the actual need of middle level technical human resources and thereby helps to adjust the supply system accordingly.

The analytical approach adopted in this study is quantitative and based on the secondary data and information however, some qualitative information collected from primary sources was also considered which played vital role in the analysis. Because of the different nature of available data and information, separate methodologies were applied in health and engineering sectors. Need based approach was adopted to project the required human resources in health sector however, trends analysis and future plan were the main basis of projection in engineering sector.

Demand of HR in engineering trade was directly proportional to the infrastructure development activities in the country. Although, such infrastructure development activities in the last decade was not in the volume to generate significant numbers of employment opportunities in the country, current Three Years Plan 2069/70-2071/72 as well as the approach paper for graduation to developing country have proposed to invest huge amount of budget in various development interventions like transportation, hydroelectricity projects, irrigation, water supply among others which is likely to generate large numbers of employment opportunities for Technical Human Resources in engineering sectors. The sectoral growth rate of GDP, and employment elasticity of output growth were considered to quantify the requirements of HR in the future. The derived coefficient of employment elasticity of output growth is 0.71 and projected growth rate of construction, electricity, gas and water and manufacturing sub-sectors are 5.5, 8.2 and 4.7 percent respectively are the main basis to project the tentative requirements. Based on these two facts demand of engineering professionals is speculated to increase by 3% to 5% annually in various professions of engineering sectors. Besides, needs of emerging professions in engineering sectors are also discussed in the report.

In the health sectors, both demand-based approach and need-based approach was discussed however, projection was mainly based on need-based approach. The factors like HRH-populationratio, human development index and targeted growth rate of population for the coming decade are the main factors considered for the projection. The desired density of HRH and the number of population provides enough ground to quantify the future requirements. Human development index which is the best measure of development level of the country is regressed with the HRH density to establish a relationship between them, since required density of HRH is found closely associated with the development level of the country. The established relationship then used to project the tentative requirements of HRH. In some categories where such density was not available, the existing ratio of various categories of HR in Health Service of Government of Nepal is taken as the clue to project the required number. The number of population in the coming decade was projected based on the annual growth rate ranges from 1.35 to 1.20 as mentioned in the approach paper of graduation to developing country. The tentative number of HR requirements in various categories of health trade up to 2023 was projected and presented in annex II. This requirements ranges from 5% to 25%.

The demand of HR or employment of graduates is not irrespective with quality. The additional quality augments additional employability in them. Attention should therefore be paid to enhance the quality of such programs. Excluding some trades which are not presently running such as radiographer, family planning assistant, etc, significant need of HR was not observed in the rest of the trades. However, demand was seems gradually